Predictive Maintenance

ML Models for PdM

Survival analysis, anomaly detection, RUL estimation, and deep learning

Types of PdM Models

Types of PdM Models

Different ML approaches address different PdM questions:

ApproachQuestion AnsweredMethods
Anomaly DetectionIs the tool behaving abnormally right now?Isolation Forest, Autoencoders, PCA, One-Class SVM
ClassificationWill this component fail within N hours?Random Forest, XGBoost, Neural Networks
RUL EstimationHow many hours until failure?LSTM, CNN on time series, survival models
Survival AnalysisWhat's the probability of survival past time T?Cox PH, Weibull, Random Survival Forests

Key Concept: The Rare Failure Problem

In a well-maintained fab, actual failures are rare (class imbalance: 99.9%+ normal). This creates challenges for supervised learning. Approaches: anomaly detection (unsupervised), synthetic oversampling (SMOTE), cost-sensitive learning, or semi-supervised methods that learn "normal" and flag deviations.

Deep Learning for PdM

Deep Learning for PdM

Deep learning has shown promise for PdM, particularly for directly modeling raw sensor time series:

  • 1D-CNNs: Convolutional networks applied to sensor time series can automatically learn relevant temporal patterns without manual feature engineering.
  • LSTMs/GRUs: Recurrent networks capture long-range dependencies across multiple process runs (e.g., slow drift over hundreds of runs).
  • Transformer-based models: Attention mechanisms can identify which time steps and which sensors are most predictive of impending failure.
  • Autoencoders: Learn a compressed representation of "normal" equipment behavior. Large reconstruction error = abnormal behavior.

In practice, gradient-boosted trees (XGBoost, LightGBM) on engineered features often outperform deep learning in this domain due to limited training data and the effectiveness of domain-informed features.

Knowledge Check

Knowledge Check

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Why is anomaly detection often preferred over supervised classification for PdM?